A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
